LONDON / ConSynSer / – On Wednesday, October 21, oil prices experienced an upward movement, with Brent crude futures increasing by $1.21 to hit $110 per barrel, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude also advanced more than $1, settling at $99 per barrel. The session was marked by volatility, triggered by new attacks targeting shipping and energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Investors balanced these risks against indicators suggesting that crude oil shipments from the Gulf are on the mend. Currently, Brent is trading nearly 80% higher than it was a year ago.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that naval mines had disrupted three tankers traveling along routes that Tehran deems unauthorized. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported an incident involving a vessel near Oman. Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and at the Shaybah oilfield. They also reported strikes on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These events rekindled concerns over supply routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the trading day, prices fluctuated significantly. Brent’s gains diminished later in the session, dropping below $108 at one point. WTI briefly touched $100 before sliding below $98. Elevated freight rates in the Persian Gulf continued to bolster prices. Over the past month, Brent has risen approximately 8%, based on data from Trading Economics. Additionally, oil prices rebounded in late September after a four-session decline.
Gulf export flows counter supply concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing prewar levels. Data from Kpler and Vortexa tracking tankers indicated that crude exports from the Middle East have increased since summer. Producers are expanding shuttle shipments through Hormuz and conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports in August grew by 7.9%, reaching the highest levels since March. These growing flows helped limit the upward movement of prices during Wednesday’s trading session.
US inventory data also played a role in shaping market behavior. The Energy Information Administration reported a decline of just over 3 million barrels in US crude stocks last week. The American Petroleum Institute, however, recorded a larger decrease of 4.9 million barrels. US weekly crude production was around 13.27 million barrels per day, down from 13.68 million the previous week. Tighter inventories suggest a more constrained supply in the world’s leading oil-consuming nation.
Russian diesel exports and Saudi attacks in focus
Russia is scheduled to deliver its first diesel shipment to the United States on Thursday, under an agreement between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Last week, Trump waived Russia sanctions in accordance with the Graham Act, paving the way for this transaction. Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched extensive drone assaults on Russian oil infrastructure, signaling Kyiv’s efforts to prevent Moscow from expanding diesel exports, as reported by Trading Economics.
On October 22, prices surged again after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field resulted in two fatalities. Brent crude surpassed $111 per barrel, and WTI moved above $99. The United States also issued orders for some personnel and their families to evacuate its embassies in Saudi Arabia. Market participants continue to monitor shipping activities in the Gulf, Saudi oil production levels, and Russian fuel exports as they seek clues about the next price trend.